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ECB Projections For 2021 After Some Of The Uncertainties Such As The US Election, Brexit, And Vaccine Approval Have Now Been Cleared

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Economic Outlook

🔘 Start to the year has been on a more positive base than some have argued.
🔘 Economic projections from December are clearly plausible and the assumptions underlying the forecasts are still correct.
🔘 Forecasts are premised on the assumption that lockdown measures will be imposed until the end of Q1.

PEPP

🔘 If a larger PEPP envelope is required, the ECB will recalibrate.
🔘 If the ECB does not need to spend the envelope it will not.
🔘 Compass for PEPP is favourable financing conditions.

EUR

🔘 ECB carefully monitor FX and FX movements but do not target it.
🔘 Will be extremely attentive to FX impact on prices.

Strategic Review

🔘 Want to arrive at a degree of clarity and predictability when defining the inflation target.
🔘 Housing costs need to be better accounted for.

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