The consensus looks for the manufacturing gauge to rise to 53.6 from 52.6, which would be the third straight rise from the 41.5 nadir in April (range: 49.0 to 57.0); the prices sub-component is seen rising to 52.0 from 51.3.
Manufacturing sentiment which just recovered from its lowest levels since the financial crisis may be hard pressed to remain positive as a second wave of Covid cases washes over several US states.
“The PMI numbers point directly at the July non-farm payrolls on August 7. If the deterioration in outlook and especially in employment is steeper than expected the implications for the economy in the third quarter might be considerable.
Instead of the spending of returning workers fueling consumption and more hiring the reverse could begin – rising unemployment again cutting into consumer purchases leading to another round of firings.”
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